Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy

The Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy was established in 2021 with the expressed purpose of studying political and policy issues in the greater Long Beach area. 

Our programs will encourage faculty and students to think of Long Beach and its neighboring cities as important sites of research. Long Beach’s diversity, size, and governing structure make it an ideal place to study questions of political engagement, governance, and equity. 


For more information, please contact us at lbcupp@csulb.edu

California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP)

Conducted, January 21-29, 2024 The California Elections and Policy Poll (CEPP) is a representative survey of likely California voters prior to the March 5, 2024 primary. The survey was fielded from January 21, 2024 to January 29, 2024. These survey results are a snapshot of the California electorate’s attitudes on the days in which the poll was fielded and may not reflect changes to voter attitudes that occur between now and Election Day. The survey asked about vote choices in the U.S. Senate primary; the Democratic presidential primary; the Republican presidential primary; and about vote preferences in the November presidential election. Voters also expressed their preferences and attitudes about a number of policies, including propositions on the March and November ballots; proposed legislation in Sacramento; and other public policy questions related to housing, higher education, environment, crime, and the economy. A subsample of L.A. County was also asked about vote choices in the county’s District Attorney primary election. Results of toplines and crosstabs may sum to slightly more or less than 100 due to rounding.

The poll is conducted by Dr. Christian Grose (University of Southern California); Dr. Matthew Mendez Garcia (CSU, Long Beach); Raquel Centeno (University of Southern California); and Dr. Jarred Cuellar (Cal Poly Pomona).

Survey methodology: The survey of 1,416 California voters is representative of the California likely voter electorate. The overall poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 % points; with larger margins of error for subgroups and crosstabs. Voters were randomly sampled from the California voter file, ensuring equal probability of participation for all voters; and to provide representativeness of the state’s voters. Then, voters were screened for those who said they were “extremely likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote. For greater statistical precision, we also recruited an oversample of Asian American, Black, and Latino California voters to take the survey. Survey weights that are standard in the field were used to adjust the full sample, including these subgroups, so the final results are representative of the likely California primary electorate. A raking procedure using the anesrake method in the statistical program R was conducted. The survey was fielded in both English and Spanish.

Media Inquiries: Please contact Dr. Christian Grose, at cgrose@usc.edu or drchristiangrose@gmail.com or 818-277-6789.

 Summary of key poll findings,

March 2024 top-two primary election: 1. Adam Schiff leads the 2024 U.S. Senate primary with 25% among likely voters. Katie Porter and Steve Garvey are tied for second, each garnering 15%. This poll was conducted January 21-29, so this is the first post-debate poll as most respondents were interviewed following the January 22 U.S. Senate debate.

2. Other candidates for the 2024 U.S. Senate primary are in single digits with Barbara Lee in fourth at 7%. Nearly all other candidates, such as Eric Early and James Bradley, are at or near 1% or less.

3. With just a week or so until early voting begins, 29% of all likely voters are still undecided. 42% of independent voters, 37% of Republican voters, and 19% of Democratic voters do not yet know who they will vote for, thus giving all major candidates potential room to grow.

4a. Asian American voters and Latino voters, the two fastest-growing racial/ethnic groups in the state, could swing the outcome of the March primary. 37% of Asian likely voters and 31% of Latino likely voters are undecided, while only one-quarter of non-Hispanic white likely voters and one-quarter of Black likely voters remain undecided.

4b. Porter leads among Latino voters (19%), followed by Garvey (16%) and Schiff (14%). These differences between Latino voters’ preferences are within the margin of error.

4c. Asian American voters support Schiff (27%) over Porter (11%) and Lee (10%). Steve Garvey has failed to catch on among Asian American voters, polling at only 5% among this group.

5. How might the election dynamics change if voters abandon a trailing candidate? How might the general election shape up? Voters revealed their second choices. We asked voters who their second choice is to measure potential strategic voting in the primary and to get a snapshot of how candidates who do not advance may cast ballots in a general election. Voters who rank Steve Garvey as their first choice are most likely to choose Adam Schiff (12%) as their second choice when asked to rank candidates. Voters who rank Katie Porter as their first chose are also most likely to choose Adam Schiff as their second choice (66%). Voters who rank Adam Schiff as their first choice are most likely to choose Katie Porter as their second choice (53%). Voters who ranked Barbara Lee as their first choice are most likely to choose Adam Schiff (51%) as their second choice. Porter is supported as second choice by 23% of Lee voters, and Garvey is second choice of 3% of Lee voters.

6. Steve Garvey is not winning Dodgers fans’ votes, suggesting his strategy of emphasizing his baseball biography is not working. We asked likely voters which California team is their favorite because Garvey has campaigned on his biography as a former baseball player. Schiff is the leader among Dodgers fans with 29%; Garvey has 16% of the vote from Dodgers fans; and Porter has 15% from Dodgers fans (a statistical tie between Garvey and Porter). This Dodgers fan result is effectively the same vote support distribution for these candidates as it is among all likely voters in the state. Presidential election

7a. In the March 2024 GOP presidential primary election, Donald Trump (66%) has a lead over Nikki Haley (28%); and Joe Biden has consolidated the Democratic primary electorate. Biden has 78% support among likely Democratic primary voters, far outpacing Dean Phillips (6%) and Marianne Williamson (6%) with the rest saying they don’t know who they will support.

7b. Looking ahead to November 2024, Biden (52%) easily beats Trump (25%) with many third-party candidates receiving about 20% of the total vote. Trump’s overall support in the state with third-party candidates is nearly 10 points lower than his 2020 vote in the state. Biden’s support is also about 10 points lower than his 2020 vote share in the state. Los Angeles County District Attorney March primary

8. Incumbent George Gascón leads a crowded field for the March primary election for Los Angeles County district attorney. Likely voters in L.A. County give Gascón 15%. Five other candidates follow close behind in the single digits (Jonathan Hatami, Nathan Hochman, Jeff Chemerinsky, Craig Mitchell, and Maria Ramirez) with many voters still undecided.

9. While Gascón leads the primary field, his approval ratings show potential weakness in the L.A. County electorate. Only 24% of L.A. County voters approve of the job Gascón is doing as district attorney, while more than half of likely voters  (51%) disapprove. The other 25% said they did not know if they approved or disapproved.

Attitudes toward housing policy, all California voters

1. Housing: California voters agree with the recent state decision to sue localities to build more housing. A majority of Californians agree with the state decision to sue localities in order to build sufficient housing for residents with 31% strongly agreeing with this policy and 27% somewhat agreeing.

2. Housing/Homelessness: A large majority of voters (74%) support the “friend of the court” brief filed before the U.S. Supreme Court by the California Association of Counties that seeks to make it easier for states to remove homeless encampments in public spaces. The U.S. Supreme Court has received this brief and has decided to hear the Grants Pass case. Governor Gavin Newsom has also supported this position before the nation’s highest court. Only 17% of California voters oppose the legal argument in this friend of the court brief.

3. Housing: A majority of California voters favor the Dream for All program that provides state-sponsored loans that require repayment to those seeking to buy homes in the state. This policy is relatively popular with 53% approving and 32% disapproving. Propositions on the March and November ballots, California likely voters

4. Housing: A ballot proposition that would repeal Costa-Hawkins is highly contentious with nearly half of voters supporting repeal of Costa-Hawkins (39%) and about half opposing repeal (41%). The current Costa-Hawkins law only allows rent control in certain apartments and does not apply to single-family homes that are rented. A change could allow rent control in both single-family home rental and apartments.

5. Prop 1, the Behavioral Health Services Program and Bond Measure, which changes how existing funds are allocated for mental health and substance abuse challenges, is supported by 66% of likely voters. Governor Newsom this week rolled out a campaign to support this proposition, and it will be on the March ballot. 

6. A majority of the state’s voters support an increase in the state minimum wage. When asked if they would support an increase to $18/hour, 59% of likely voters supported; 34% opposed; and 8% said they didn’t know.

7. A potential ballot proposition to legalize psilocybin, also known as “magic mushrooms,” is not popular with California voters. When asked, 48% of likely voters oppose such a policy change and only 35% support. The other 17% did not know where they stand on this issue.

8. The Marriage Equality amendment to repeal California’s state constitutional provision against marriage between same sex couples is very popular among California likely voters. Only 20% of voters oppose the Marriage Equality amendment and 73% support it.

9. An overwhelming percentage of voters want to keep the existing law prohibiting oil and gas wells near schools, homes, and hospitals. When asked, 71% of California voters favor keeping the prohibition that is current law; and 20% favor repeal. The wording of this ballot proposition will be important for shaping the final vote outcome in addition to this topline result.

California voters’ attitudes on local redistricting reform, crime, environment & more

10. About a year after the L.A. city council racist tape scandal, California voters favor redistricting reform at the local level. AB1248, a bill that would require independent redistricting commissions in all California cities and counties of more than 300,000 people, is supported by 48% and opposed by 16%. A related bill vetoed by Governor Newsom in 2023, SB52, would require an independent redistricting commission for the city of Los Angeles specifically. 46% of California voters support this bill that would apply only to the city of Los Angeles and 13% oppose it.

11. Voters have soured on Prop 47, a ballot proposition passed by California voters about a decade ago. 52% of voters think the change to the law due to Prop 47 has definitely caused increases in theft and “smash and grabs,” while 19% think it has somewhat caused increases in theft and “smash and grabs.” This law reduced simple possession of drugs for personal use from a felony to a misdemeanor and changed how theft cases were classified. Under the current law, theft of goods of more than $950 is a felony, while prior to Prop 47 theft of goods of more than $400 was a felony. 

12. California voters are polarized on requiring only electric vehicles by 2035. About half of California voters agreed with the recent decision by CARB that all new vehicles sold after 2035 must be electric vehicles, while just under half did not agree with this decision. 52% of voters agreed with CARB’s decision to require electric vehicles only, while 48% disagreed.

13. Large majorities of California voters favor offshore wind turbines to generate electricity through wind. 41% of voters strongly support and 32% somewhat support offshore wind turbines. Only 7% somewhat oppose and 12% strongly oppose.

14. A new law recently passed pushed by Senator Lena Gonzalez on mobile food vendors is popular with California voters. More than two thirds of voters favor this policy that will make it easier for mobile food vendors to get permits for their businesses. California voters’ attitudes on higher education and CSU tuition increases

15. Cal State public universities have announced a proposal to raise annual tuition from $5,472 to $7,682 over the next five years. Most voters disapprove of this tuition increase (59% disapprove; 30% approve). One-third of voters say it will make it harder for them or a family member to attend a CSU. A majority of voters think the size of the tuition increase is “unreasonable” (59%) though about 40% of voters think it is a “reasonable” increase in tuition. Are voters moving out of California due to the political climate of the state?

16. Few California voters are leaving the state due to California’s political climate. The poll asked California voters if they had thought about moving out of state, and – if so – why. Of those asked, 70% of California voters said they have no plans to move and another 10% were not sure. 14% said they were planning to move out of state, but it was not related to politics; while only 7% said they are planning to move out of California due to the state’s political climate.